Projected preventable cancers through full implementation of tobacco control policies in East and South-East Asian countries, 2025–2050: a modeling study

A new study led by researchers from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) estimates that full implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) measures could prevent about 3.5 million cancer cases in East and South-East Asia over the next 25 years. This study, published in the Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific, is the first to evaluate the potential impact of maximizing the implementation of WHO tobacco control policy measures on smoking prevalence and future cancer burden across 15 countries in this region.

According to the most recent estimates from the IARC Global Cancer Observatory, about 159 million cases of tobacco-related cancers are projected to occur in East and South-East Asia between 2025 and 2050. At current levels of smoking, about 44.2 million of these cases would be attributable to tobacco smoking. The researchers estimated that if the WHO FCTC measures were fully implemented, about 3.5 million of these new cancer cases could be prevented. Further analysis showed that part of this effect is attenuated by socioeconomic development. After adjustment for Human Development Index (HDI), the estimated number of cancer cases that could be prevented by implementing WHO FCTC measures decreased to 2.2 million.

The potential impact differed substantially between countries and cancer sites. China accounted for the largest absolute number of preventable cancers, followed by Japan and Indonesia. Lung cancer accounted for the largest number of preventable cases. Of the 2.2 million cases of all cancer types that could be avoided after adjusting for HDI, more than 1.1 million are cases of lung cancer that could be avoided.

These findings highlight the substantial potential for cancer prevention through stronger implementation of the WHO FCTC tobacco control policies in East and South-East Asia. This region accounts for a considerable share of the global burden of tobacco-related cancers. Therefore, strengthening tobacco control there could make an important contribution to global cancer prevention.

Nemati S, Nobels M-P, Rumgay H, Vand Rajabpour M, Johansson M, Sheikh M, et al.
Projected preventable cancers through full implementation of tobacco control policies in East and South-East Asian countries, 2025–2050: a modeling study
Lancet Reg Health West Pac. Published online 20 August 2026;
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2026.101962

Read the article